Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 March 2013
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 69 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Mar 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Mar,
12 Mar, 13 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 363 km/s at
09/2119Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/2238Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/2039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 610 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Mar, 12 Mar, 13
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Mar 119
Predicted 11 Mar-13 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 10 Mar 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Mar 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Mar 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Mar-13 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Mar-13 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10