Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 322 km/s at 10/1222Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0854Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/0958Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 111
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 005/005/005
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10