Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 10/0104Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Jun), unsettled to active levels on day two (12 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 069
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 008/010-012/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/20
Minor Storm 05/25/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/10/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/50/20