Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 June 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 311 km/s at 10/0726Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 274 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Jun, 13 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Jun 075
Predicted   11 Jun-13 Jun 075/076/076
90 Day Mean        10 Jun 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun  006/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun  006/005-006/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/25