Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 June 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 10/2055Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 10/1949Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 10/1859Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1586 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jun), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 085
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 085/090/090
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 014/020-014/016-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/35/20