Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
10/1142Z from Region 2087 (S18E71). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12
Jun, 13 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 477 km/s at
10/1947Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1144Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1203Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jun, 12 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on day three (13 Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 166
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 165/160/160
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 006/005-006/005-012/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor Storm 01/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/15/30
Major-severe storm 05/05/50