Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 June 2013
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2013
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/1424Z from Region 1765 (N09W50). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one and two (11 Jun, 12 Jun) and expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (13 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
420 km/s at 10/1553Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/0342Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0310Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1479 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Jun, 12 Jun, 13
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 093
Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 095/100/105
90 Day Mean 10 Jun 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun-13 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15