Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 July 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 09/2245Z from Region 3052 (N15W01). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 10/0835Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/1100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/1114Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 09/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 153
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 160/155/145
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 008/008-013/015-020/028

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor Storm 10/20/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/60/70