Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 July 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 346 km/s at 10/1730Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 069
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 069/069/068
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 006/005-010/010-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/30/25
Major-severe storm 10/30/25