Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 July 2015
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 10/1613Z from Region 2385 (N07W53). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at 10/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2748 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jul), unsettled to active levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 129
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 125/120/120
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 017/025-015/018-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 55/50/30
