Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 July 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0640Z from Region 1787 (S12W24). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (11 Jul,
12 Jul) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (13 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 490 km/s at 10/1950Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 09/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 10/0043Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1829
pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (12 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Jul).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (11 Jul, 12 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 55/55/40
Class X 10/10/05
Proton 10/10/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 118
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 008/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 009/012-007/008-009/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/25
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/25