Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagneticfield has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 09/0448Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/1313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0923Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 617 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Jan, 12 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 073
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 073/072/072
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 006/008-005/005-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25