Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 09/2109Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2011Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1227 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 070
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 005/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 005/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/20