Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 476 km/s at 10/0307Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0356Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/2240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2874 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (12 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 109
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 110/108/105
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 006/006-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/35/35
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/55/50