Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 10/1133Z from Region 2257 (N07W41). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 483 km/s at 10/1500Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1549Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/1434Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 977 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (13 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 01/01/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 152
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 155/160/175
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 011/012-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
