Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 January 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/0727Z from Region 1944 (S09W43). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12
Jan, 13 Jan).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 473 km/s at
09/2313Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 09/2253Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1449Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu at 09/2150Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 543 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Jan), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(13 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11 Jan),
are expected to cross threshold on day two (12 Jan) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on day three (13 Jan).

III. Event probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 35/35/35
Proton 99/80/50
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jan 175
Predicted 11 Jan-13 Jan 175/170/175
90 Day Mean 10 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan 015/018-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan-13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/35/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 60/45/25