Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 February 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/0438Z from Region 2941 (N24W15). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 10/1429Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/1516Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 10/1503Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7543 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Feb) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (13 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 15/10/10
Class X 05/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 118
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 118/116/112
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 016/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 016/020-010/012-017/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/20/40
Minor Storm 20/05/25
Major-severe storm 05/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/05
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/25/70