Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 February 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 456 km/s at 09/2327Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/1941Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/0536Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3795 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (13 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 070
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 010/012-009/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/10