Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 February 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/1321Z from Region 2699 (S07E01). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 10/1847Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 10/0709Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0319Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    15/15/15
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 078
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    15/10/10