Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 February 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 468 km/s at 09/2332Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10414 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Feb 074
Predicted   11 Feb-13 Feb 075/075/078
90 Day Mean        10 Feb 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/05/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           15/15/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/20