Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 10/1522Z from Region 2497 (N13E08). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days one and two (11 Feb, 12 Feb) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (13 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 443 km/s at 09/2140Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/2113Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/2235Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 170 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Feb, 13 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (12 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 112
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 112/110/105
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 009/009-011/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 25/35/25