Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 09/2335Z from Region 2282 (N14E51). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 435 km/s at 10/0734Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/1837Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/1250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 295 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Feb, 13 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 141
Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 10 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb-13 Feb
