Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 December 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 476 km/s at 10/1617Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/0430Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 10/0422Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 071
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10