Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 December 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 366 km/s at 09/2101Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2473 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 072
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 072/072/074
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 075

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  012/014-013/016-011/014

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/35