Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 10/1715Z from Region 2615 (S06, L=141). There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 721 km/s at 10/0307Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 09/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10713 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (13 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 072
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 070/070/073
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10