Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 December 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
10/2007Z from Region 1916 (S13W65). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec,
13 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
430 km/s at 09/2326Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0539Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0507Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 109 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (11 Dec, 12 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on day three (13 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 175
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 175/180/175
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 134

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 005/005-005/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/15/25
Major-severe storm 05/05/40