Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 August 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (11 Aug) and expected to be very low on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 384 km/s at 09/2239Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/2245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2586 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 074
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 074/074/072
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 005/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10