Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 August 2018

By SpaceRef Editor
August 10, 2018
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 398 km/s at 10/1233Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 10/1838Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Aug 070
Predicted   11 Aug-13 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        10 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug  006/005-009/008-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/15/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           20/25/30
Major-severe storm    10/25/25

SpaceRef staff editor.