Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 August 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Aug) and likely to be low on days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 10/1530Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 10/0517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0519Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5975 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Aug), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (12 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (13 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 095
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 012/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/012-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 30/25/15