Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event of the
period was a C1/Sf flare at 10/2134 UTC from Region 2137 (S19W23,
Cao/beta). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (11 Aug, 12 Aug)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day
three (13 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
428 km/s at 10/2026Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 10/2001Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/0829Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 305 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Aug, 13
Aug) and quiet levels on day two (12 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
Class M 10/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 108
Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 10 Aug 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug-13 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 25/10/25