Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 April 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 10/0234Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/0151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3730 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Apr, 12 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 078
Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 10 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 013/014-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 35/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/35/25