Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 April 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 10/0234Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0630Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 10/0151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3730 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (11 Apr, 12 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Apr).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Apr 078
Predicted   11 Apr-13 Apr 078/078/078
90 Day Mean        10 Apr 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr  011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr  013/014-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor Storm           35/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/35/25