Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 09/2255Z from Region 2529 (N10E54). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr, 13 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 10/2050Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/1306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/0615Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Apr, 12 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 111
Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 112/112/112
90 Day Mean 10 Apr 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 008/008-008/008-013/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/35
Minor Storm 05/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/20/50