Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 10 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/0152Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Apr, 12 Apr,
13 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 472 km/s at
09/2230Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 10/2059Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -1 nT at 09/2246Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Apr) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 137
Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 140/140/145
90 Day Mean 10 Apr 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 006/005-008/008-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/30/30
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/40/40