Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 September 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 415 km/s at 01/1149Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/2200Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 01/1330Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 24184 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (02 Sep, 04 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 068
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 006/005-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/15
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/25/20