- Press Release
- Dec 2, 2022
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 September 2017
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/1537Z from Region 2674 (N13E38). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 764 km/s at 01/1349Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/0839Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1768 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Sep, 03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 093
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 094/096/096
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 015/016-012/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/20/25