Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 September 2017

By SpaceRef Editor
September 1, 2017
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 01/1537Z from Region 2674 (N13E38). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 764 km/s at 01/1349Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/0839Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1768 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Sep, 03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Sep 093
Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 094/096/096
90 Day Mean        01 Sep 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  020/028
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep  017/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  015/016-012/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/25

SpaceRef staff editor.