Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 September 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
September 1, 2016
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 245 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 604 km/s at 01/1855Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2030Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/0609Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Sep) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 20/20/20
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 095
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 022/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 011/015-009/012-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 20/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.