Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 September 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at 01/0240Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/1637Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/0916Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3144 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 089
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 090/085/090
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 017/022-012/014-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/25
Minor Storm 25/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/50/30