Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 September 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
01/0744Z from Region 2149 (N09W77). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (02 Sep, 03
Sep) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (04 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
508 km/s at 01/0750Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/2043Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/0329Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3504 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Sep,
03 Sep, 04 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 20/20/35
Class X 01/01/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 127
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 125/125/115
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 011/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 008/008-008/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/20