Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
01/1420Z from Region 1834 (N12W34). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
599 km/s at 01/1215Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0607Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1204Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 446 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet levels on day
two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 104
Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 105/108/110
90 Day Mean 01 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 011/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 013/015-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep-04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/10/15
Minor Storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/15/25
Major-severe storm 45/10/20