Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 01/2028Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 01/1607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/1341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 860 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       red

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 070
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  013/012-008/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    40/30/30