Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 30/2104Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 01/0529Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/0529Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 14651 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 086
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct 086/086/084
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 083

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  011/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  008/008-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/15/15
Major-severe storm    20/10/10