Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 October 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
October 1, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 676 km/s at 01/0439Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/1742Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/1741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 81034 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 081
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 080/080/085
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 016/018-010/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/20/15

SpaceRef staff editor.