Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 1, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 01/1310Z from Region 2422 (S17W69). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day one (02 Oct) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (03 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (04 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 380 km/s at 01/1719Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 01/1452Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/1644Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M 70/65/50
Class X 25/20/15
Proton 25/25/25
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 120
Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 120/115/105
90 Day Mean 01 Oct 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 016/024-016/028-025/040

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/35
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/50/65

SpaceRef staff editor.