Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 01/0006Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 01/1722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 01/1232Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1634 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 077
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 074/072/072
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/25