Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 307 km/s at 01/1601Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/1731Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2866 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 073
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov 073/074/073
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  011/012-008/008-006/006

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/15