Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (02 Nov, 03 Nov) and expected to be very low on day three (04 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 01/1704Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 01/1256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 01/0942Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 18601 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 077
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 076/074/072
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 008/008-007/008-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/30