Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 1, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 01/0027Z from Region 2443 (N07E29). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 396 km/s at 01/0345Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/0454Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 01/0428Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (02 Nov), active to major storm levels on day two (03 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (04 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 55/55/55
Class X 15/15/15
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 124
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 036/065-033/050-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/35
Minor Storm 35/40/15
Major-severe storm 40/30/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 01/05/10
Minor Storm 10/10/30
Major-severe storm 90/85/50

SpaceRef staff editor.