Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 November 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
01/1646Z from Region 2201 (S05E37). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
580 km/s at 01/0803Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 01/0640Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 01/1136Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at
01/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 857 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (02 Nov, 03 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Nov). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 20/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 120
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 118/115/115
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 141
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 011/012-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/20
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/30
