Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
01/1953Z from Region 1884 (S13W01). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov,
04 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 427 km/s at
31/2142Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/2133Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/2234Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov, 04
Nov).

III. Event probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Nov 145
Predicted 02 Nov-04 Nov 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 01 Nov 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10